The Spring Statement 2026 was always expected to be a low-key affair.
Rebranded as a “Spring Forecast”, Rachel Reeves emphasised that it wouldn’t be a second Budget but would instead simply be an update to accompany the latest forecast published by the Office of Budget Responsibility.
And all that makes absolute sense – a single fiscal event back in the Autumn to provide predictability for markets, households and businesses, and an update now to provide meaningful insights into the state of the UK economy as we reach the end of the Fiscal year.
Headlines delivered by The Chancellor today included:
- Slow and steady performance.
- Growth for 2026 is slowing, but the medium-term outlook is stronger.
- Inflation is falling and on target to hit the target sooner than expected.
- Borrowing is down, and debt pressures are easing.
- Labour Markets are fragile, especially in relation to young people, but show signs of future improvement.
Again, this all sounds eminently sensible, but my concern is that the latest forecasts have not been updated to reflect the recent events in the Middle East. An escalating and worrying conflict, significant spikes in oil and gold prices, and falls in the FTSE 100… all point to general global economic uncertainty. This paints a very different picture, and the impact on UK PLC could be significant. They always say that numbers can tell whatever story you want, but it would be interesting to see how the OBR would change its view based on what it knows now.
For more information on the Spring Statement, please contact our Tax team here.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as professional advice.
